There is no telling how 2026 gubernatorial primaries will turn out
Before I tell you what I am about to tell you, I need to tell you this: Back in 2001, as incumbent Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes was gearing up for a second term, a know-it-all columnist wrote, “I hear people say Roy Barnes will have a tough reelection. Forget it. Roy Barnes will easily win a second term.” Oops.
Despite leading all the pre-election polls and outspending his opponent 6-1, Barnes lost to a relatively unknown state senator from Bonaire named Sonny Perdue, making Perdue the state’s first Republican governor since Reconstruction. So much for that know-it-all columnist knowing it all.
It is with that proviso I note that former Republican Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan has announced he is running for governor in 2026 – as a Democrat. And entering the Republican gubernatorial primary is Georgia’s Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who couldn’t and wouldn’t find Donald Trump 11,780 votes to overturn his loss in Georgia in 2020, earning him the Righteous Wrath of RITNOs (Republicans in Trump’s Name Only.)
Do these two guys really think they’ve got a snowball-in-Hades chance of winning? They must or they would not have committed to the effort. At this point, I would rate their chances somewhere between slim and none. And then I remember the governor’s race of 2002 and say let’s wait and see.
Start with Raffensperger. He is one of three Republicans hoping to replace term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp, including Chris Carr, the state attorney general, and current Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, who has already gotten the blessings of Trump. But let’s not forget that with the exception of Jones, not one single statewide candidate endorsed by Donald Trump won in 2022. None. Zero. Raffensperger beat Trump’s choice handily without a runoff in the Republican primary and then waxed his Democratic opponent in the general election.
Of course, the state Republican Party, which is to politics what the Keystone Kops are to law enforcement, passed a resolution barring Raffensperger from running as a Republican. Like most everything about that bunch, the resolution has no relevance.
Raffensperger is saying all the proper Trumpisms as though he and the president are cool and that not finding 11,780 votes in 2020 has long since been forgotten. He says he wants to purge from school curriculum all things “woke,” keep girl athletes separated from transgender athletes, ban transition surgeries and puberty blockers, and work with Trump on economic, immigration and law enforcement policies. I assume he assumes RITNOs have a short memory.
And now to Geoff Duncan. He says he wants to make Georgia “the front line of Democracy and a backstop against extremism.” Extremism as in President Donald Trump. While serving as Georgia’s Republican lieutenant governor, Duncan strongly opposed efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election results and has since called Trump “the worst candidate in the history of the party.”
Choosing not to run for a second term, he endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for president at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago and called on Republicans to “dump Trump.”
This guy is starting between a rock and a hard place. Republicans consider him a turncoat and many Democrats consider him an interloper at best or an opportunist at worst. As lieutenant governor, Duncan opposed most all of the Democratic Party’s agenda, including abortion, gun control, Medicaid expansion and immigration.
On a recent Atlanta Newspaper podcast, Duncan said, “I think the highest quality an effective leader can have is having the ability to say that they got something wrong. And I got it wrong.” Question: Is that high quality leadership or crass political expediency? Either way, he seems to have done a quick U-turn on a lot of fundamental issues. Give Geoff Duncan credit for one thing: He has managed to unite both Democrat and Republican partisans. Neither like him.
So here we are, roughly eight months from the primaries when you and I will select the Republican and Democratic nominees for governor. Among our choices are a guy who continued from page
stood up to Trump and created a national firestorm and now says he is firmly on the team and a highprofile former Republican lieutenant governor turned Democrat who abhors all things Trump.
In politics, a lot of things can – and probably will – change in the runup to the primaries eight months hence. But one thing is for sure: You won’t be reading some know-itall columnist telling you how it is all going to turn out. He will leave that decision to you. Lesson learned.
You can reach Dick Yarbrough at dick@dickyarbrough.com or at P.O. Box 725373, Atlanta, Georgia 31139.
