Election Analysis and Runoff Prediction
A look at the county by county vote is pretty telling. Governor Kemp in preelection polling and during early voting and Election Day, captured a majority of independent and swing voters, as well as roughly 95 percent of self-identified GOP voters (heading into the Election). Walker was polling with that same audience (GOP voters) between 80-85 percent.
Governor Kemp received almost 30,000 more votes than Herschel, and Senator Warnock out-polled Ms. Abrams by 130,000 votes. The top Democratic vote getter, after Senator Warnock, was their AG nominee, Jen Jordan, followed by their LG nominee, Charlie Bailey and then Stacey Abrams.
I forecast that the Governor would win by a 10 percent margin. The actual number was 8, and I forecast a U.S. Senate runoff unless the Governor won by 11-12 percent, and IF the Libertarian held the 2 percent or better he was consistently polling. Chase Oliver, the Libertarian nominee, pulled 2.07 percent. Their gubernatorial nominee, Shane Hazel, pulled .07 percent.
In close Senate contests since 1992, every time the Libertarian has pulled 2 percent or more, a runoff has resulted.
Coverdell/Fowler, 1992, Winner Coverdell (R) Chambliss/Martin, 2008, Winner Chambliss (R) In the 2020 U.S. Senate Runoffs, there were two months between the General and the January 2021 runoff. President Trump was focused on the 'Stop the Steal,' and convinced many GOP voters that the system was rigged, that their votes would not matter, and he ran ads ON RUNOFF ELECTION DAY telling voters to call their Congress member to protest certification of the Electoral College results of the following day, January 6, 2021.
There were 400,000 fewer GOP voters in the runoff than in the General. The two Democratic candidates, who both finished second on Election Day, won their races.
Forecast for this contest — IF TRUMP stays out of Georgia, Herschel wins by 3 percent.
Bill Crane, Principal, CSI Crane, LLC Arts & Professional Building 165 DeKalb Industrial Way, Suite D. Decatur, GA 30030